Thu Sep 11, 2008 5:08pm EDT
NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. government's debt
burden could balloon to $5.3 trillion in the next decade, in
part if it borrows more to finance another fiscal stimulus
program and help ailing U.S. banks and carmakers, Goldman Sachs
said.
This latest estimate is more than double the $2.3 trillion
baseline forecast from the Congressional Budget Office and 50
percent higher than Goldman's previous forecast of $3.6
trillion, according to Goldman Sachs economists in a research
note released late Wednesday.
Even accounting for stimulus programs and financial
rescues, the two biggest components of the national debt over
the next 10-year span would come from a shortfall in tax
receipts worth $3.2 trillion and military spending, estimated
at about $1.2 trillion.
Goldman economists also upwardly revised their federal
budget deficit outlook for the next two fiscal years by more
than $100 billion each compared with their prior forecasts.
They now predict the U.S. budget gap will hit $565 billion
in fiscal 2009 and $560 billion in fiscal 2010, adding that
there are risks that could push those figures above $600
billion.
Goldman's latest forecasts "entail a much greater degree of
uncertainty than in recent years, with risks tilted heavily to
the side of even larger budget gaps."
The deterioration in the U.S. economy and turmoil in the
financial markets have compounded the grim budget outlook for
the next couple of years, the bank's analysts said.
On Wednesday, the Congressional Budget Office raised its
fiscal deficit forecast for fiscal 2008, which will end on
Sept. 30, to $407 billion from its March estimate of $357
billion.
With Congress expected to consider a second fiscal stimulus
package later this month, it could cost about $50 billion, with
most of it recorded in fiscal 2009, Goldman analysts said. This
would follow the $168 billion package enacted earlier this
year.
Moreover, the government may be poised to rescue more
failing financial institutions after it seized control of
mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac
(FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) this past weekend.
Goldman said the cost of the move to bail out the two
government-sponsored enterprises was upward of $50 billion,
twice the amount estimated by the Congressional Budget Office
in July.
Moreover, the 11 bank closures so far this year have cost
the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp $8.9 billion.
While aid to the financial sector has gotten the most
attention, Congress is also considering whether to grant as
much as $50 billion in loan and loan guarantees to the
struggling auto industry, Goldman analysts said.
(Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by James Dalgleish)