Voters in Colorado, Michigan,
Minnesota and Wisconsin Are Split on Obama-Clinton Ticket, According to
Quinnipiac-washingtonpost.com-Wall Street Journal Survey washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Thursday, June 26, 2008; 10:01 AM
In two other states that were closely contested in the 2004
presidential election -- Wisconsin and Minnesota -- Obama holds
double-digit edges among likely voters, an indication that these states
may not be in the swing category this election. The Democratic Party's
presidential nominee carried both Wisconsin and Minnesota in each of
the last four elections, although Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) won each by
slim margins in 2004.
The four surveys are the kickoff of a
four-month effort to measure voter sentiment in key battleground
states. They echo several recent national polls -- including surveys
conducted for Newsweek and the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg -- showing
Obama with a double-digit lead over McCain, the GOP candidate. However,
other national surveys -- including the Gallup daily tracking poll --
show the race to be much closer.
If the 2004 election was a
battle of the bases, the battleground surveys suggest the 2008 fight is
shaping up to be one in which independent voters who align with neither
party are the crucial bloc.
In all four surveys, respondents
who identified themselves as Democrats or Republicans supported their
party's candidate with something close to unanimity. Obama took between
86 percent (Michigan) and 93 percent (Colorado) among Democrats, while
McCain scored similarly high numbers among self-identified Republicans.
With partisans loyally aligning behind their respective
parties, Obama's edge in each of the four states is founded on two
factors: An increased tendency for voters to identify as Democrats and
a solid margin for the Democrat among independent voters.
Democrats
held an edge over Republicans in three of the four states -- ranging
from an 11-point gap among self-identified partisans in Wisconsin to an
eight-point edge in Michigan. In Colorado, the survey found that
Republicans comprised 29 percent of the electorate, compared with 28
percent for Democrats and 38 percent calling themselves independents.
That dead heat on party identification, however, marks a major gain for
Democrats from 2004, when exit polling showed Republicans with a nearly
ten-point edge in the state.
Independents, who were widely
written off during the 2004 election in favor of appeals by the
candidates to their respective party bases, look likely to play a
central role in picking the next president in these four battleground
states. And for now, Obama has a clear edge over McCain among
independent voters in all four states. That lead is largest in
Minnesota, where Obama takes 54 percent among independents compared
with just 33 percent for McCain. The Democrat's lead was 13 points in
Wisconsin, 12 in Colorado and eight in Michigan.
Obama's lead
among independents is all the more important given the large number of
voters eschewing the two major parties in each state. In Michigan,
Minnesota and Wisconsin, roughly three-in-ten voters identify as
independents; in Colorado that number is closer to four in ten.
The
political environment in each state suggests a decidedly uphill climb
for McCain in the general election. In Colorado, just 31 percent of
voters approve of the way President Bush is handling his job, while 63
percent disapprove. In Michigan, the numbers are even more dismal, with
a meager 26 percent expressing approval of Bush and a whopping 67
percent disapproving.
Although Colorado and Michigan vary widely
in terms of their demographics, the issues of importance to voters in
each are remarkably similar in the polling.
The economy is the
dominant issue in each state, with 56 percent in Michigan calling it
their most important voting concern and 47 percent saying the same in
Colorado. Asked to name a specific economic worry, more than
four-in-ten voters in each state chose gas prices.
The war in
Iraq clocked in as the second most important overall issue -- 19
percent in Colorado, 16 percent in Michigan -- while health care was
the only other issue to rank in double digits in the two states.
Terrorism was named as the most important issue by eight percent of
voters in both Michigan and Colorado. In Colorado, illegal immigration
could well be a sleeper issue; nine percent of all voters called it a
critical issue, including 15 percent of self-identified Republicans.
Obama
has focused predominantly on the economy since he secured enough
delegates to claim the Democratic nomination early this month. McCain,
meanwhile, has spoken out forcefully on the need for energy reform as
well as the threat posed to America by Islamic terrorists. Asked
recently by Fortune magazine to name the most pressing economic threat
to the country, McCain responded: "I would think that the absolute
gravest threat is the struggle that we're in against radical Islamic
extremism, which can affect, if they prevail, our very existence."
But even as Obama and Clinton gathered this week with their top
fundraisers in Washington for a party unity event, there were signs
that Democrats were less than keen about the prospects of an
Obama-Clinton ticket.
In Colorado, 45 percent of Democrats
said they would like to see Obama pick Clinton, while 43 percent said
they would oppose such a choice. The numbers were slightly better in
Wisconsin and Minnesota, where 52 percent and 51 percent, respectively,
approved of an Obama-Clinton ticket. In Michigan 56 percent said Obama
should pick Clinton while just 29 percent said he should not.
One
major factor in the seeming lack of intensity around Clinton as vice
president may well have to do with her husband, former president Bill
Clinton. In each of the four states, more than 20 percent of Democrats
and roughly four-in-ten independents said that the former president
could be a "problem" for an Obama administration, a surprisingly large
number perhaps born of the controversial role Bill Clinton played
during the primary process.
The polls were conducted in each
state from June 17 to June 24 by Quinnipiac University. The sample
sizes and margins of error in each state were:
* Colorado: 1,351 voters; +/-2.7 percent.
* Michigan: 1,411 voters; +/- 2.6 percent.
* Minnesota: 1,572 voters; +/-2.5 percent.
* Wisconsin: 1,537 voters; +/-2.5 percent.
Washington Post polling director Jon Cohen and polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this story.
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